St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 49ers -9.5 at -110 (5Dimes)
The 49ers are coming off a bye, and are getting healthier. The Niners will win the battle in the trenches, and will be able to run the ball effectively against the Rams 31st ranked run defense. The Rams had a decent pass rush last year, but are dead last in the league with six sacks this season. Their defense is also last in completion percentage against opposing QB’s (70.4%), and is second worst in yards per play (6.16 yards). Colin Kaepernick lit the Rams up in the first game. Although the Rams got off to an early lead the first time around, the game wasn’t even close in the end – and I expect the same thing today.
Philadelphia Eagles v. Houston Texans
Pick: Eagles -1 at -110 (5Dimes)
As if the Eagles high-scoring offense isn’t enough, their defense and special teams also put points on the board. The Texans have not done well against good teams. Three of their four wins were against the Skins, Raiders, and Titans. The Eagles will be looking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Cards last week, and they get Darren Sproles back. Ryan Fitzpatrick is good for an INT or two. Eagles are the better team, and they will win today.
San Diego Chargers v. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Chargers +2.5 at +100 (5Dimes)
The Dolphins are 3-1 in their last four games, but look at the teams they beat – Jags, Raiders, and Bears. Everyone is talking about a West Coast team playing an early game on the East Coast, but the Chargers are actually 7-5 in such games since 2012. Chargers big receivers against the Dolphins small corner backs is a big mismatch. The Chargers don’t turn the ball over much (zero fumbles lost). The Dolphins are 1-3 against teams with a winning record, and don’t have much of a home field advantage. The ten day break gave the Chargers a chance to get healthier. After losing to two good teams, the Broncos and Chiefs, the Bolts will get back to winning today.
New York Jets v. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -9 at -102 (5Dimes)
The Chiefs have the second best ATS record (5-2), while the Jets have the worst ATS record in the NFL (1-6). Michael Vick isn’t any better than Geno Smith. There’s a reason he is the back-up. The Jets are 29th in giveaways, and are last in turnover differential. Having coached Vick in Philly, Andy Reid is familiar with his tendencies – and will exploit them today. This game is not going to be close. Chiefs win big.
Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings -1 at -104 (5Dimes)
I actually thought the Skins had a chance in this one, before they announced that RG3 will start. When will the Skins realize that RG3 is not a good QB? The Vikings have the 8th ranked defense in the NFL, and are 4th against the pass. They are second in the league in sacks with 25, which doesn’t bode well for Griffin. Coming off a big win against the Cowboys, in a short week, this is a let down situation for them. Vikings win at home.
Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots
Pick: Broncos -3 at +102 (5Dimes)
Brady may have the better H2H record against Manning, but this year’s Broncos team is better than last year’s team. They are the best in the NFL. Look at what the Chiefs pass rush did to the Patriots. Expect the same today from DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. I’m not buying the Pats. They barely beat the awful Jets. Broncos will end the Patriots home win streak today.
NFL Picks: 10-12