Betting Tips: NFL Sunday – 10/23/16

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-115)
New England Patriots -7 (-115)

*All plays are 1 Unit, unless otherwise noted.

Total W/L – 2016
NFL Picks: 8-12
Units: -5.985

Total W/L – 2015
NFL Picks: 31-26
Units: +6.2977

Total W/L – 2014
NFL Picks: 41-34
Units: +3.978

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Betting Tip: New York Giants v. Dallas Cowboys – NFL Week 7

I try to avoid wagering on my beloved Cowboys, or any of the teams I support. One must bet with their head, not with their heart. I am usually the first to admit my teams suck, and have no problem criticizing them. All sentiment aside, the Cowboys and Giants are two teams heading in two different directions. My Cowboys haven’t been this good in a while. Similar to the Cowboys team that won three SB’s in the 90’s, this Cowboys team has a really good offensive line. Drafting offensive linemen in the first round of three of the last four drafts is finally paying off. In fact, one can argue that the Cowboys have the best offensive line in all of football. DeMarco Murray leads the league in rushing, and it is not even close. Murray is getting huge holes to run through, often times getting at least five yards up-field before even being touched. Romo is not having to win games on his own. The effective running game in turn opens up the passing game. Let’s not forget that Romo has Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to. It appears that Jones and Garrett had a plan all along. Go figure! Everyone thought Dallas was going to have the worst defense in the league this year. They are definitely not the best, but they are average or even slightly better. They are a squad that is improving each week. They are 8th overall in points allowed. They looked impressive in shutting down the potent Seahawks rushing attack last week in Seattle. As long as their defense can play like that, they are going to be very hard to beat. The Giants started to look better, when they won three in a row, after losing the first two games of the year – but they were humiliated in Philly last week. They have some key injuries too. WR Victor Cruz, RB Rashad Jennings, and CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie to name a few. This is a divisional game, and the Giants usually play well in Dallas – but this is a different Dallas team. Many feel this might be a let-down game for the Cowboys after beating Seattle, but I think they are going to kick the Giants while they are down. Pick: Cowboys -3.5 at -125 (5Dimes).

Betting Tips: NFL Week 7 – 10/19/2014

Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts

The Bengals are coming off an emotionally draining 37-37 OT tie against the Panthers, and will be without WR’s A.J. Green and Marvin Jones. They are not as dangerous on offense without A.J. Green. Cincinnati’s 28th ranked defense is in for a tough matchup against the Colts #1 ranked offense. The Bengals have allowed 80 points in their last two games. Colts QB Andrew Luck leads the league in both passing yards and TD’s. The Colts are 5-1 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, and 4-2 ATS in their last six games Cincinnati. Pick: Colts -3 at -125 (5Dimes).

Cleveland Browns v. Jacksonville Jaguars

I correctly predicted the Jags to cover last week against the Titans, but will be fading them this week against the Browns. Jacksonville is the worst team arguably the worst team in the league. I backed them to cover last week, because I felt that was one of the few games it could actually win this year. The Jags have the 32nd ranked offense and 30th ranked defense in the NFL. In addition, they are 32nd in points scored and 31st in points allowed. Jacksonville has not scored more than 17 points in a game this season. The Browns, on the other hand, have scored at least 21 points in their five games, and are coming off a dominating win against the Steelers. Cleveland has the 10th best offense in the NFL, and 3rd best running attack behind Tate, Crowell, and West. Browns QB Brian Hoyer has a 99.5 passer rating, with seven TD’s and only one INT. Most eye-popping, Hoyer leads the league with 13.6 yards per completion. The Browns are 6-2 in the games that Hoyer has started. Cleveland’s two losses were by a combined five points. Pick: Browns -5.5 at -115 (5Dimes).

Seattle Seahawks v. St. Louis Rams

Coming off a rare loss at home to my Cowboys (2nd loss in last 21 home games), the Seahawks will be looking to make a statement. Seattle has not lost back-to-back games since 2012, and are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Seattle has the better offensive and defensive lines, and will push the Rams around in the trenches – where games are won and lost. Key matchup is Seattle’s 2nd ranked rushing attack against St. Louis’ 26th ranked run defense. I don’t think this game will be even close. Pick: Seahawks -5.5 at -118 (5Dimes).

NFL Picks YTD: 3-4

Betting Tip: Atlanta Falcons v. Baltimore Ravens – NFL Week 7 – 10/19/2014

A lot of people thought that Atlanta’s bad season last year was an anomaly, and that they would bounce back and contend this year – but it appears that the Falcons are just not a good football team. Their two wins have come at home against the Saints and Bucs – two teams that are below .500. They lost to the Bears last week at home, a game that many thought they would win. The Falcons are an abysmal 31st overall on defense (29th pass defense, 27th run defense, and 29th points allowed). They have allowed an average of 419 yards per game to opposing teams. That kind of production, or lack there of, is just not going to cut it in this league. Baltimore is 4-2 on the season, and three of their four wins have been blowouts by 20 + points. The Ravens, who are normally known for their defense, have the 8th best offense in the NFL (5th points scored). Although the Ravens defense is only 17th overall in average yards allowed per game, they don’t give up many points (3rd in points allowed). The Falcons may be good on offense, but their offensive line has had trouble protecting Matt Ryan (6 sacks, 15 hits, and 52 hurries). Not only have the Falcons not won a game on the road this season, they failed to cover the spread in all three games. The Ravens, on the other hand, are 2-1 ATS at home. The Ravens are a good football team, and should cover against the Falcons, who are horrible on defense and on the road. Pick: Ravens -6.5 at -120 (5Dimes).

Hakan’s Sports Picks
Futbol/Soccer Picks: 3-8
NFL Picks: 3-4

Betting Tip: New Orleans Saints v. Detroit Lions – NFL Week 7 – 10/19/2014

The line opened up at Lions -2.5, and was offered at -3 in some books. The spread has since moved to Lions -1. That is most likely due to the news that the Saints’ Jimmy Graham, who was expected to miss 2-4 weeks, is now a game time decision. If he plays, he will most likely be limited to red-zone situations, similar to what the Saints did last year when he was hurt. Another reason this line may be so low, is that the Saints are coming off a bye week. Quite frankly, I’m not buying any of this. I feel people are having trouble accepting the fact that the Saints suck. They are overrated. The Saints are horrible on the road, and they are horrible on defense. Their only wins were against Minnesota and Tampa Bay at home, and they barely beat the Bucs in OT. They lost all three of their road games to the Falcons, Browns, and Cowboys. The Lions on the other hand, are sporting the best defense in the NFL – 1st overall, 1st pass defense, 2nd run defense, and 1st in points allowed. While Megatron is questionable, Reggie Bush practiced on Friday and is probable. In general, good defenses trump good offenses. Although the Lions offense has struggled at times, they should be able to put points up against the poor Saints defense. I see the Saints’ road woes continuing this week. Home-field advantage, and the best defense in the league, will be the difference for the Lions. Pick: Lions -128 (5Dimes.)

Hakan’s Sports Picks
Futbol/Soccer Picks: 3-8
NFL Picks: 3-4